Kazakhstan is already the site of one of the world's worst environmental catastrophes, the drying of the Aral Sea. Now there are fears of a similar disaster at Lake Balkhash in the southeast of the country.

Increased water use in both Kazakhstan and China has reduced inflows to Lake Balkhash. The lake is mainly fed by the Ili river that originates in China's Xinjiang region, but attempts to reach an agreement on water use between the two countries have so far failed.

Xinjiang's growing population has increased its demand for water for industry and irrigation, raising concerns that the supply of water to Lake Balkhash could be drastically reduced. This would affect not only the population around the lake, but the entire Ili-Balkhash river basin where around one fifth of Kazakhstan's population lives.

In the small industrial town of Balkhash, on the lake's northern shore, people are aware of the problems. "We are worried that our lake will be destroyed, like the Aral Sea, if China keeps increasing the amount of water it takes from the Ili," says the curator of the local museum. "It's not just because of the fishing industry. We love the lake and the nature around it."

Bathers unite

In the sub-zero December temperatures there are few cars on Balkhash's wide streets, and pedestrians go quickly about their business huddled in padded jackets and fur hats. The lake is deserted except for a few dark figures fishing through holes in the ice. The town's main employer is the copper-smelting complex owned by Kazakhmys. Its tall chimneys, billowing smoke, dwarf the brightly painted apartment blocks and Russian-style cottages clustered around the lakeshore, and colour the snow a grimy grey.

Since Soviet times Balkhash has been a popular destination for beach holidays and children's summer camps. The town's life revolves around the lake, and many people find seasonal work in the tourism and fishing sectors. "In winter there's nothing to do and nowhere to go - the nearest city is 400 kilometres away," says Nastya, a beautician. "But in summer everyone is out by the lake."

The area wasn't immune to the global economic crisis, even though Kazakhmys tried to avoid laying people off. "Looking for work?" ask several billboards in the town centre, giving details of a local job fair. Recently, a citizen's committee got together with the main food producers in the town and persuaded them to make food available more cheaply. Regular food markets are now held near the centre, where meat, potatoes and other products are sold at reduced prices.

As well as Balkhash and other lakeside resorts, desertification would affect most of southeast Kazakhstan. Long and shallow, the lake stretches 600 km from east to west. The western part, which is fed by the Ili, is freshwater, while the eastern side is saline. If the inflow from the Ili falls significantly, the lake would split into two, with the western side eventually drying up. "If outtake from the river increases by 10-15%, the question of Balkhash will be solved like the Aral Sea," warned Mukhtar Tultabayev, an official at Kazakhstan's Ministry of Environment Protection, at a workshop on the issue organised by the EU and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).

Another delegate, Iskandar Mirkhashimov of the Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia (Carec), said: "The interests of the consumer killed the fourth largest lake in the world, the Aral Sea, and are now going to kill the sixteenth largest... There are a lot of ecological problems that could become social problems. The negative scenario is that we will see a fall in water resources in the region leading to desertification. This will cause agricultural production to fall, reducing food safety. It will also lead to an increase in natural catastrophes and a decline in the health of the population."

Three's a crowd

Solving the problems of the Ili Balkhash river basin and preventing them from descending into an ecological disaster won't be easy, especially since the river basin is spread across three countries, China, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.

Officials from Kazakh NGOs, government agencies and international organisations are aware of the problem. The EU and the UNDP have recently launched a new project, Promoting integrated water resources management and fostering trans-boundary dialogue in Central Asia. This aims to address not just problems in the Ili-Balkhash area, but also to try to deal with other water resource issues elsewhere in the region.

According to Natalia Alexeeva of the UNDP, the main focus of the Ili-Balkhash project is on cross-border dialogue and increasing cooperation between Kazakhstan and China, where 70% of the lake's waters originate. A draft agreement on water use in the Ili-Balkhash basin was drawn up at a conference in 2007 and sent to China, but so far there has been no response. China is believed to be focusing on domestic environmental issues, and has less interest in those mainly affecting its neighbours.

Kazakhstan also diverts water from the Ili, mainly to irrigate rice paddies. The government may start charging for this water, which, it is hoped, will either force farmers to use water less wastefully, or to switch from rice to a less thirsty crop. However, settlements along the river are now dependent on the crop, with people employed not just in the fields but in rice processing plants.

Kazakhstan has had some success in rescuing the northern part of the Aral Sea. Now it needs to address an emerging disaster at Lake Balkhash, which also hinges on the difficult issue of cross-border water use. As Kazakhstan and the rest of Central Asia develop economically, and their populations grow, demand for water will only become more urgent, and compromises will need to be found.